By The Pulseline News Desk
The Pacific Ocean is quietly assembling one of the most powerful El Niño events on record, and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the world should brace for months of extreme heat, floods, and drought as a result.
According to the WMO’s latest outlook, the El Niño pattern — already well established — is on track to become “very strong” by the end of the year, with forecasters now putting the odds that it persists through February 2027 at close to certainty. It is the most confident forecast the UN weather agency has ever issued for either El Niño or its cooler counterpart, La Niña.
Heat hiding below the surface
The bigger worry isn’t just what’s happening at the ocean’s surface — it’s what’s brewing beneath it. Scientists have detected a massive pool of abnormally warm water sitting below the tropical Pacific, deep enough that it could keep feeding the El Niño pattern for months to come. In parts of the Pacific, subsurface readings in July and early August ran more than 8°C above normal.
That subsurface heat matters because it signals staying power. A short-lived warm spell at the surface can fade quickly; a deep reservoir of heat means the engine driving El Niño still has plenty of fuel left to burn.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres didn’t mince words, warning that El Niño is “being supersized before our eyes.”
Data backs up the alarm. The Niño 3.4 index — the benchmark scientists use to track ocean temperatures in the central tropical Pacific — averaged a full 1.5°C above normal between May and July. By July it had climbed to 2°C, and weekly readings through mid-August spiked as high as 2.6°C above the long-term average.
Why this one is different
El Niño itself isn’t unusual — it’s a natural cycle that recurs every two to seven years as central and eastern Pacific waters warm and scramble weather patterns across the globe. What makes this occurrence more dangerous is the backdrop it’s forming against: the world’s oceans are already running hotter than usual, thanks to decades of greenhouse gas emissions.
Researchers stop short of saying climate change is making El Niño itself stronger. But they’re clear that a warmer atmosphere and ocean can supercharge its side effects — pumping more heat and moisture into the system and fueling more extreme weather than a “normal” El Niño would produce.
Not every region will suffer the same way
A powerful El Niño doesn’t mean uniform disaster everywhere. Forecasters expect above-normal temperatures across nearly the entire globe between September and November, but rainfall impacts will vary sharply by region — some areas facing a higher risk of heavy rain and flooding, others tipping toward drought.
Two other ocean patterns are complicating the picture further: a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to develop, and the tropical Atlantic is forecast to stay unusually warm. Together, these overlapping systems make it impossible to pin down a precise, country-by-country forecast — but they reinforce a shared message of heightened risk worldwide.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo has pointed out the irony baked into the phenomenon’s name — “El Niño” means “little boy” in Spanish — even as it threatens to inflict serious harm on communities and economies globally. She noted that the disruption and devastation from droughts and floods are already visible, and are expected to intensify as the pattern strengthens further.
Rare global mobilisation
The scale of the threat has triggered an unprecedented response: this marks the first time the WMO has launched a mobilisation of this size with national weather agencies, aiming to sharpen forecasts and early-warning systems as the risks escalate. The goal is to give governments and humanitarian agencies a head start on protecting the sectors most exposed — agriculture, public health, energy, and water supply.
Saulo’s message to the world was blunt: an event of this magnitude calls for a response to match.
The road ahead
Perhaps the most unsettling detail is that this El Niño, despite already being exceptionally strong, hasn’t even peaked yet. For countries across South Asia and beyond — where El Niño years have historically been linked to shifts in monsoon behaviour, drought stress, and disruptions to agriculture and water resources — the coming months will be a test of how well early-warning systems can translate global data into local preparedness.
The question forecasters are now asking isn’t whether El Niño will keep strengthening. It’s how much disruption it leaves behind by the time it finally breaks.
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