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Sri Lanka’s modest 3.1% growth forecast raises concerns amid mounting debt

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Sri Lanka’s economy is projected to grow by approximately 3.1% in 2025, according to Finance Ministry officials who presented their mid-year fiscal review to the Committee on Public Finance (CoPF) in Parliament this week.

The committee, chaired by MP Dr. Harsha de Silva, convened to assess the country’s income, expenditure, and debt performance for the first half of the year.

During the session, Dr. de Silva questioned whether the growth target was realistic given current trends. In response, ministry officials maintained that a 3.1% growth rate remains achievable.

According to the Ministry of Finance, government revenue for the first half of 2025 reached Rs. 2,318 billion—exceeding the estimated Rs. 2,241 billion target by 3%. Officials described this as a sign of strong fiscal performance compared to the same period last year.

However, total government expenditure rose sharply to Rs. 3,467 billion, an increase of Rs. 367 billion from the first half of 2024.

A significant portion of this was attributed to debt servicing, which alone amounted to Rs. 1,984 billion. Spending on essential public services, including salaries, pensions, and social security programmes such as Aswesuma and Samurdhi, also contributed to the rise.

Meanwhile, the Sri Lanka Customs Department reported revenue of Rs. 996 billion between January and June 2025, marking a 47% increase year-on-year.

A substantial share of this came from automobile imports, which generated Rs. 429 billion. Since vehicle imports were reopened, 220,026 vehicles have entered the country, with 154,537 already cleared by Customs.

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