A closed door session titled “Geopolitical Cartography of the Indian Ocean and the Himalayas” was held on May 30 at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), National University of Singapore (NUS), bringing together leading scholars, diplomats, and policymakers to explore emerging power dynamics across South and Southeast Asia.
Hosted collaboratively by the Geopolitical Cartographer and NUS, the event’s highlight was a comprehensive keynote address delivered by Ranil Wickremesinghe, Patron and President of the Geopolitical Cartographer, and former President of Sri Lanka.
He was welcomed by Ambassador Ong Keng Yong, Executive Deputy Chairman of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies and former ASEAN Secretary-General.
Mr. Wickremesinghe laid out a historical and strategic framework for understanding the Indian Ocean region and the Himalayas, weaving together a geopolitical narrative from the colonial era to contemporary strategic rivalries.
A civilizational crossroads turned strategic flashpoint
Framing the Indian Ocean as a “U-shaped geopolitical theater,” Mr. Wickremesinghe argued that the region’s strategic coherence began with the British unification of the Indian subcontinent in the 19th century. He described this colonial consolidation as the origin point of a new Indian Ocean order, later fragmented through independence movements and shifting power centers.
“This landmass was a center of civilization — from Sanskrit to Pali, from Hinduism to Buddhism,” he said. “But geopolitically, it only became unified under colonial rule, and we’re still navigating the consequences.”
He also examined how the shifting political capital in India — from Kolkata to Delhi — reoriented South Asia’s political landscape, with ripple effects seen in Sri Lanka and the broader region.
The “five strategic states” and overlooked alliances
Wickremesinghe emphasized the importance of what he called the “five strategic states”: Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives. These countries, he noted, are too often marginalized in global geopolitical assessments but are vital to regional stability and connectivity.
“These aren’t just buffer states. They are active stakeholders,” he asserted, calling for greater regional integration and the recognition of these nations’ agency in strategic decision-making.
He further examined the complex triangle of relationships between these five states, India, China, and Pakistan — highlighting the delicate balance each must maintain in the face of intensifying Sino-Indian and Indo-Pakistani rivalries.
Contours of great power competition
Touching on major regional flashpoints, Wickremesinghe noted the growing strategic assertiveness of China via the Belt and Road Initiative and its expanding access to the Indian Ocean through Myanmar and Pakistan. “China has encircled the Indian Ocean,” he warned, citing its infrastructural and political footholds from South Asia to Africa.
India’s expanding maritime and economic partnerships, particularly with the UAE, Mauritius, and Iran, were acknowledged as a counterbalance. However, Wickremesinghe cautioned against the militarization of forums such as the Quad, which he argued risks distorting the Indian Ocean’s traditionally non-military ethos.
“The Indian Ocean is not meant to be a battleground,” he said. “It must remain a highway for commerce, peace, and freedom of navigation.”
US-China rivalry and the Indo-Pacific question
Wickremesinghe raised skepticism over the application of the ‘Indo-Pacific’ concept, asking whether it merely serves as a strategic framework for American concerns in the South China Sea and Taiwan. “We support freedom of navigation — but we are not interested in being pulled into a confrontation over Taiwan,” he said, underscoring that regional countries would be reluctant to openly oppose China under the ‘One China’ policy.
He also questioned the strategic utility of recent Western re-engagement in the region, referencing the UK’s naval posturing and France’s role in the southwestern Indian Ocean. “This is not the 1940s. The dynamics have changed.”
A call for connectivity and regional realism
The session concluded with a forward-looking message: the need to build greater regional economic and infrastructural connectivity while preserving strategic autonomy. Wickremesinghe emphasized the value of platforms like BIMSTEC, IORA, and BRICS in fostering South-South cooperation.
“India is the key player and that’s undisputed,” he said. “But the rest of us are not bystanders. We want mutually beneficial relations, not zero-sum games.”
The event, moderated by Associate Professor Iqbal Singh Sevea, Director of ISAS, brought together officials from Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, diplomats, and private sector leaders including members of the Chamber of Indian Industry.
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