By The Pulseline News Desk
The Sri Lankan rupee has depreciated 5.7% against the US dollar so far this year, adding to the economic pressures facing the Government as it seeks to preserve macroeconomic stability while rebuilding the country’s external buffers.
According to the latest Weekly Economic Indicators released by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), the rupee’s year-to-date depreciation against the US dollar stood at 5.7% as of August 28.
The movement comes amid a week in which domestic interest rates edged higher, even as liquidity in the money market remained firmly in surplus.
The Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate (AWPR) had increased by nine basis points during the week to 10.95%, indicating a modest rise in the cost of bank lending. Meanwhile, the Average Weighted Call Money Rate had increased to 8.84%, compared with 8.81% at the end of the previous week.
Despite the increase in short-term rates, liquidity conditions remained comfortable. Total outstanding liquidity in the domestic money market rose to Rs. 318.13 billion as of August 28, up from Rs. 278.51 billion a week earlier.
The combination of a weaker rupee and higher lending rates will remain an important consideration for policymakers, particularly as businesses and consumers continue to adjust to the post-crisis economic environment.
Foreign investors return to Govt securities
There were also signs of stronger foreign participation in Sri Lanka’s government securities market.
Foreign investor holdings of Treasury Bills and Treasury Bonds, measured in rupee terms, has increased by approximately 3.98% during the reporting week.
Meanwhile, investor demand has remained strong at government securities auctions, with Treasury Bill auctions being oversubscribed by around 2.9 times and Treasury Bond auctions by approximately 4.7 times.
The strong auction demand provides a measure of market confidence in government securities, while increased foreign holdings could offer additional support to domestic foreign-exchange liquidity if the trend is sustained.
However, the continued depreciation of the rupee highlights the challenge of balancing market-driven exchange-rate movements with the need to rebuild reserves and maintain external stability.
Stock market retreats
The Colombo stock market, meanwhile, ended the week lower.
The All Share Price Index (ASPI) fell 0.47% to 21,315.91 points, while the S&P SL20 declined 0.38% to 6,005.34 points.
The weekly retreat came despite relatively strong demand at Treasury securities auctions and rising foreign participation in government debt.
Oil prices ease as Hormuz concerns recede
Global energy markets provided some relief during the week, with crude oil prices declining as concerns over potential disruptions to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz eased.
Brent crude fell by $4.50 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined by $3.59 compared with the previous week.
The decline followed progress in discussions between Iran and Oman over traffic through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, easing fears of a disruption to global oil supplies.
For Sri Lanka, lower international oil prices could help contain pressure on the country’s import bill and reduce the risk of additional fuel-price pressures.
The developments in the currency, money and energy markets therefore present a mixed picture for the Sri Lankan economy: the rupee remains under depreciation pressure, domestic liquidity is ample, government securities continue to attract strong demand, while easing global oil prices offer some relief on the external front.
The key challenge for policymakers will be to convert this relative financial-market stability into sustained economic growth without allowing renewed pressure on the rupee or external accounts to undermine the recovery.
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