By The Pulseline News Desk
Sri Lanka faces a 63 percent probability of a strong El Niño event and a 33 percent probability of a weak El Niño, according to the latest national assessment presented to government officials at a high-level coordination meeting on climate preparedness.
The assessment was revealed at the inaugural meeting of the Special Cabinet Subcommittee and the Officials’ Committee established to coordinate Sri Lanka’s response to the anticipated El Niño climate phenomenon. The meeting was held at the Presidential Secretariat under the chairmanship of Environment Minister Dr. Dammika Patabendi.
Coordinated Government response
The two committees were appointed by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake to develop short, medium and long-term strategies aimed at mitigating the potential impacts of El Niño. These strategies will focus on safeguarding food security, strengthening water management systems, ensuring energy conservation, and improving coordination among key government institutions.
Officials warned that developing global El Niño conditions could lead to below-normal rainfall patterns across Sri Lanka, increasing the likelihood of drought conditions in multiple regions. The variability in rainfall is expected to place additional pressure on agriculture, drinking water supplies, hydropower generation and rural livelihoods.
In response, all relevant ministries and departments have been instructed to prepare comprehensive contingency plans within two weeks. These plans are expected to outline response measures under multiple scenarios, including prolonged dry spells and regional water shortages.
Early warning and information control
A key decision at the meeting was that all official information and updates regarding El Niño conditions will be issued exclusively by the Department of Meteorology. Authorities said the move is intended to prevent conflicting interpretations of weather data and ensure that the public receives consistent and scientifically verified information.
Officials emphasised that coordinated communication will be essential in managing public expectations and enabling timely preparedness at both institutional and community levels.
High-level policy coordination
The Special Cabinet Subcommittee includes several key ministers responsible for sectors likely to be directly affected by climate variability. These include Agriculture, Livestock, Land and Irrigation Minister K.D. Lal Kantha; Plantation and Community Infrastructure Minister Samantha Vidyarathna; Ports and Civil Aviation and Energy Minister Anura Karunathilaka; Trade, Commerce, Food Security and Cooperative Development Minister Wasantha Samarasinghe; and Housing, Construction and Water Supply Minister Susil Ranasinghe.
The inclusion of multiple sectors reflects the wide-ranging impact El Niño conditions can have on the economy, particularly in agriculture-dependent regions and hydro-reliant energy systems.
Preparing for climate stress
El Niño, a periodic climate phenomenon associated with warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is known to disrupt global weather patterns. In Sri Lanka, it is often linked to reduced monsoon rainfall, dry spells, and water stress in agricultural districts.
Past El Niño events have contributed to crop losses, reduced hydropower generation and increased reliance on thermal power, placing strain on both farmers and the national energy grid.
Officials said the current preparedness effort aims to reduce vulnerability by improving inter-agency coordination and ensuring that response measures are activated early rather than reactively.
Food, water and energy security at the core
At the centre of the government’s strategy are three priority areas: food security, water resource management and energy stability. Ministries have been tasked with identifying immediate interventions to safeguard paddy cultivation, secure drinking water supplies, and manage reservoir levels critical to hydropower production.
Authorities also stressed the importance of aligning long-term climate resilience planning with ongoing development projects, particularly in irrigation infrastructure and agricultural modernisation.
With the probability of El Niño conditions now considered significant, the government’s early planning approach is expected to play a crucial role in reducing economic disruption and ensuring essential services remain stable during potential weather extremes.
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